Well, I have finanlly decided to join the many who have decided to write for all the world to see. I decided this would be a great forum to keep in touch with current, past and prospective clients in a timely way. I find that when the market declines sharply, folks want to know what I am thinking--despite the fact that I take a long term view of the market.
So here's what I think now: the past two weeks have been extremely volatile. This is I believe largely due to the presence of hedge funds. I heard on CNBC the other day that hedge fund trading makes up about 30% of all trading on the NYSE. Many hedge funds make very short term trades: they are in, next day, they are out--makes for much anxiety for the rest of us. I think especially in the emerging markets arena: like China which was up 80% in 2006, we could continue to see much volatility. In addition, in looking at the charts, it appears that although damage has been done, there could still be more on the way. Also consider that the spring and summer are typically not a good time for the market--the old adage, "Sell in May and go away", certainly held true last year. I don't advocate trying to time the market--and since all my clients have diversified investment portfolios, I share these thoughts with you to alter your expectations that we may be in for some more downside. For anyone who has some cash to invest, this means an opportunity to buy at better prices.
What is happening in the market is not nearly important as what is happening in your life. While market returns are an important component in developing financial planning models, the amount of assets you have and how much you spend are equally as important. I plan on using this space to discuss ideas regarding all of these things and refer you to resources for more information.
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