Monday, March 9, 2009

What I see going on

I think many find it helpful to know what other people are doing during these trying times. More than anything else, I see folks looking for ways to spend less and save more. If you don't have an emergency fund, and still have your job, you need to make sure you have 3 to 6 months worth of expenses in case you are unlucky enough to get laid off.
The only thing we can control is our spending and how much risk we are taking in our portfolios. Last year was a disaster for portfolio management professionals as no diversified portfolio was able to weather the storm with any amount of success. The only investment that did well were Treasury Bills and cash. Does it make sense now to try to turn back the clock and get more conservative in light of what has happened? Well I really believe that 10 or 20 years from now we will look back on this time as the best buying opportunity of a generation. I wish I knew how many people have been telling me they don't have a long term time horizon. But unless you plan on jumping off a bridge at some point, every reader has a good chance of living to a ripe, old age. Do you want to run out of money when you're 93? what will you be able to do about it then? So my rule is, if you 80 years (young) or older, we can talk about having a more conservative portfolio--if not, you really need to hang in there, keep saving and keep adding to the market when it's down if you can. If you are unwilling to take on portfolio risk, then there really is only one other solution, that is to cut back spending and learn to live on a lot less. So you see, we always have choices....
Going back to my experiences lately, I am receiving more phone calls than I ever have in the past five years from people who want a financial plan done. Not because they are necessarily worried about their investments, but more so that they have been earning good salaries but not saving as much as they could. I view this as being a huge positive for the economy going forward. It obviously doesn't benefit our retail sector for Americans to be spending less, however in the long term, I see a much stronger economy developing, one that is actually able to with stand market gyrations and economic downturns better. Because when , you have savings you have a sense of security and you have flexibility.

February Results UGH

More bad market news. When will it end, or just stop going down? Barron's over the weekend suggested that a major rally is due because of the over-sold condition of the market. Art Cashin appears on CNBC every morning to give a trader's market take--he's the head of floor operations for UBS (been on the floor for decades)--he thinks the market is due for a good bounce...alright then, bring it on. Here are February's performance numbers as published by Investment Advisor Magazine:

The Monthly Index Report for March 2009

Index

Feb-09

QTD

YTD

Description
S&P 500 Index*

-11.0%

-18.6%

-18.6%

Large-cap stocks
DJIA*

-11.7%

-19.5%

-19.5%

Large-cap stocks
Nasdaq Comp.*

-6.7%

-12.6%

-12.6%

Large-cap tech stocks
Russell 1000 Growth

-7.5%

-12.0%

-12.0%

Large-cap growth stocks
Russell 1000 Value

-13.4%

-23.3%

-23.3%

Large-cap value stocks
Russell 2000 Growth

-10.4%

-17.2%

-17.2%

Small-cap growth stocks
Russell 2000 Value

-13.9%

-26.2%

-26.2%

Small-cap value stocks
EAFE

-10.2%

-19.0%

-19.0%

Europe, Australasia & Far East Index
Lehman Aggregate

-0.4%

-1.3%

-1.3%

U.S. Government Bonds
Lehman High Yield

-3.1%

2.7%

2.7%

High Yield Corporate Bonds
Calyon Financial Barclay Index**

-0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

Managed Futures
3-mo. Treasury Bill***

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%


All returns are estimates as of February 27, 2009. *Return numbers do not include dividends.
** Returns are estimates as of February 26, 2009.