Monday, October 6, 2008

3rd Quarter in the Red

87% of all mutual funds posted losses for the year ending 9/30/2008, this according to an article in the Washington Post which you can find here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/04/AR2008100400157.html
I think the worst part of this horrible bear market we are in and probably how it is the most dissimilar from previous bears, is that nothing seems to be doing well--except maybe Treasury bonds. Commodities, international, small cap, real estate...asset classes that are normally not perfectly moving in sync with the large cap equity markets, are all down....no safe havens. There are a few silver linings here, at least that I can see: the VIX which is a measure of volatility and often dubbed the "Fear Index" is at a very high level. This high level indicates an extreme in the market, which usually doesn't last too long. The S&P 500 right now is at 1048.9 which is down -28.8% year to date and down -32.98 from the high reached last October. The average downside for bear markets is in the -30% to -35% range.....we just need a few more people, besides Warren Buffet to see that there is value in the market and begin to buy. Notice however, that Mr. Buffet sees this debacle as a buying opportunity, not a selling opportunity, which is what made him a very wealthy person. Buffet is 78 years old and has seen many decades of different types of markets. Like him, I have faith in the markets and am optimistic.

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